USA Election

After a long and acrimonious campaign, it is time for the United States of America to go to the polls once more to elect a President. Following the two term presidency of Barack Obama, the nation will have a new figurehead of either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton officially taking over the levers of power from January 2017.

Arguably, this has been the most poisonous presidential campaign in living memories featuring two candidates who clearly detest each other and polarise the voters. In many respects both sum up the American dream, Trump is the son of a property developer, who has taken over the business and grown the portfolio substantially, also branching into golf. Clinton is the daughter of a small business owner who became a Yale graduate, became a successful lawyer put her own political career on hold to allow her husband the opportunity to become President and has served as a Senator and Secretary of State. She now stands on the brink of becoming the first female President of the USA.

In the UK media and political circles, there has been a groundswell of opinion that a Trump presidency is unthinkable and a disaster waiting to happen. The new London Mayor, Siddiq Khan, had already blasted Donald Trump over his proposed restrictions on Muslims entering the USA and openly said that he is supporting Hillary Clinton. The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, also made clear that she wants to see a Clinton victory during an interview on ITV’s Peston on Sunday programme.

Both Khan and Sturgeon may have thought that they were capturing the zeitgeist, especially since the ‘America First’ philosophy of the Republican nominee has caused alarm across the world, notably the suggestion of scaling back NATO and a hard line on immigration, however, both were probably better advised to use more diplomatic language in a public forum. Trump has been shrewd enough to speak of a trade deal with the UK in the wake of Brexit and we can’t ignore that he has business interests in Scotland through his golf and hotel empire.

In addition to his hard line policy position, Mr Trump has never been far from personal controversy during the campaign, with his belligerent persona, questions over his tax affairs, alleged past mafia ties, several bankruptcies, allegations of not paying workers appropriately and lurid sexual allegations, including an embarrassing video from 11 years ago discussing women in a degrading manner.

Clinton has adopted a more liberal agenda on the campaign trail, taking an approach that is designed to make the most of America’s soft power and viewing the nation as a force for good in the world. This has included discussion on further healthcare reform, LGBT rights, fast track path to citizenship for immigrants and tighter licencing on guns. She also has President Obama and his wife Michelle assisting in campaigning on her behalf, certainly displaying a more harmonious relationship than when Clinton and Obama were at loggerheads with both trying to secure the Democrat nomination for 2008.

Her campaign has been tainted by a scandal over using a private email server to transmit confidential official correspondence and attempting to delete the email trails. This matter is being investigated by the FBI and has the potential to derail the campaign. There have been other controversies bubbling beneath the surface such as the blurred lines between the charitable work of the Clinton Foundation and the lucrative speeches on the international lecture circuit. There are also questions over conflicts of interest in whether Clinton’s official role was influenced by the Foundation and about tax affairs. From a UK perspective, it is known that Clinton did not like the idea of Brexit and is unlikely to prioritise any application for a trade deal between our nations, following the line set by Obama.

The traditional best of three Presidential debates were also considered to be among the most ill-tempered and embarrassing in history. In spite of the allegations of sleaze that both candidates have faced, there has not been a smoking gun to take out either candidate. Although Clinton has consistently been ahead in the polls, Trump appears to be able to fight back. In a world where strategists like to create a range of voter personalities, Trump has arguably reached out to ‘Detroit Man’, the working class white man who is concerned about the USA losing its’ standing in the world, has seen a decline in job security with manufacturing jobs disappearing and having to compete with skilled immigrants. Clinton has found a core audience among the Frasier Set, the upwardly mobile, liberal, urban professionals.

Earlier polls in the lead up to the election suggested that Clinton had a comfortable lead though more recent polls though this has narrowed as Trump continued to press home his message about the alleged untrustworthiness of his opponent and using his dog whistle to tap into the concerns of ordinary Americans. The election result will boil down to who can mobilise their core vote and persuade the millions of undecided voters who are playing their cards close to their chest. This large constituency of undecided may be genuinely confused when faced with two underwhelming candidates or may not wish to disclose that they are voting for Trump, who is less popular in media circles. If this was the case, there would be the potential for a Brexit style shock result.

It seems unimaginable that a billionaire businessman could assume the role of the anti-establishment candidate but Trump has been occupying this ground, trying to appear as the man of the people. In spite of Clinton potentially becoming the first female to hold the supreme office in the USA, she is very much viewed as part of the establishment though it remains to be seen whether the Clinton brand will be seen as relevant as it was in the freewheeling economy of the 1990’s, during the ‘Great Moderation’ of Alan Greenspan’s imagination.

One of the unofficial accolades attributed to the President of the USA is that they are Leader of the Free World. For those of us who are not US citizens, we can only hope that the new President will maintain the standing of the USA as a beacon of democracy and enterprise. We can hope that they will be positive in their approach to Foreign Policy, facing down Russian grandstanding over Syria and working collaboratively to prevent another Cold War.  They will also have to do their best to reunite the USA as there could be protests following the election.

Following a presidency that ushered the first mixed race candidate into the Oval Office, the Obama years will be remembered as symbolic rather than being a future candidate to be carved into Mount Rushmore, though many will point to steadying the economy, the audacious capture of Bin Laden in Pakistan and bringing more healthcare reforms as key achievements. Obama also came across as an agreeable and witty person who was at ease in any social setting, a quality that lacks in either Trump or Clinton. All of those who jumped on the bandwagon of viewing Obama as the President of Africa and hailing him as a Martin Luther King figure are probably feeling short changed today. In light of 8 years that were mainly about steering the USA through the choppy waters in the wake of the financial shock of 2007/8, it is difficult to see either 2016 candidate assuming office for any more than a four year term in a transitional rather than transformational presidency.

In a race where there are two polarizing candidates, it is tempting to question whether the American dream needs to be reimagined. Some of the allegations made against both candidates have been unproven, embellished or historic, however, there are plenty of skeletons in both closets. Naturally, it would be good to see a candidate who is an internationalist with an entrepreneurial spirit and a track record of innovation that is designed to empower citizens in a low carbon, environmentally friendly, inclusive vision of the future assume control of the Presidency. Perhaps it is unfortunate that the name of Elon Musk is not on the ballot paper, but whatever the result on the 8^th November, it is important that the UK seeks to engage the new President of the USA in a manner that will continue the special relationship that has shaped our nations throughout our respective histories.